Five out of the six states viewed by the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee as the most vulnerable to Republican advances lie in the Rust Belt, a region where coal, steel, and manufacturing plants once thrived before widespread industrial decline led to factories decaying in rust.
Now, the DLCC, the official party committee dedicated to electing Democrats to statehouses, views Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin’s legislatures as the “most competitive states where majorities are determined by the slimmest of margins, including multiple chambers where the party in power will be decided by a single seat.” Alaska is the sixth state on the DLCC’s “battleground” list.
In Minnesota, Democrats are looking to flip one seat to break the current tie in the state House. In Michigan, the DLCC noted state Democrats are just four seats away from breaking the Republican majority in the state House. In Pennsylvania, Democrats are shoring up Democrats’ one-seat majority in the state House. In Virginia, Democrats “are determined to hold control” of the state House after flipping it blue during the 2023 political cycle. And in Wisconsin, the Democratic Party is eyeing gaining a majority in both legislative chambers.
Republicans have not yet released their state targets for the 2025-2026 cycle.
Trump flipped three of the states on the DLCC’s new battleground list red during the 2024 presidential election. The president’s wins in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania came as working-class voters in Rust Belt states have, in many cases, revolted against the Democratic Party, leading to concerns on the Left that states and voters once taken for granted could be for grabs.
“This is an extremely competitive map,” the DLCC said in a press release. “Five of our battleground chambers were each decided in the last election cycle by a single seat, directly impacting the lives of 40 million Americans. Majorities in many states will likely come down to just a few districts and hundreds of votes.”
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The DLCC’s announcement follows warnings from prominent leaders affiliated with the Democratic Party, among them Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), that the Left is losing blue-collar voters, many of whom reside in the Rust Belt, because it is out of touch.
“We feel left behind,” one disillusioned former railroad worker who lives in Ohio and backed Trump during the 2024 elections told the Guardian. “People who’ve lived here all their lives are working two or three jobs just to pay their bills.”
