DUAL THREATS: CHINA AND NORTH KOREA: America’s four-star commanders responsible for deterring and, if it comes to war, defeating China and North Korea spent this week on Capitol Hill warning Congress that the U.S. military is falling behind both adversaries as they rapidly build their conventional and nuclear capabilities.
North Korea is “focused on advancing their cruise missile and hypersonic glide vehicle research and development programs,” Army Gen. Xavier Brunson, the U.S. Forces Korea commander, told the Senate Armed Services Committee on his second day of congressional testimony alongside his “boss,” U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Adm. Samuel Paparo.
“Kim Jong Un also has two highly publicized visits to nuclear sites,” Brunson said, noting that last year, North Korea conducted 47 ballistic missile launches and one failed satellite launch. “In the coming year, we expect the DPRK to further develop hypersonic and multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle MIRV capabilities to complete his eighth party Congress goals.”
Brunson testified that Kim is no longer interested in reconciliation with South Korea or denuclearizing to appease the West but is instead focused solely on building his military, with help from his new close ally, Russia. “The DPRK continues to build its nuclear weapons program and boast a Russian-equipped, augmented, modernized military force of over 1.3 million personnel.”
Kim wants “concessions” from Russian President Vladimir Putin in return for sending troops and munitions for use in Ukraine, Paparo said. “And those concessions would be modernization of their air defenses, specifically the MiG-29, the Su-27, advanced help of their surface-to-air missiles, quieting technology for their submarines, additional help in order to instantiate a ballistic missile submarine as well.”
TAIWAN REMAINS THE MOST DANGEROUS FLASHPOINT: Paparo repeated the warning he gave the House Armed Services Committee on Wednesday, which is that Chinese President Xi Jinping is serious about taking control of Taiwan, with the most likely scenario being a naval blockade that would isolate the self-governing island and make resupply by the United States difficult.
“China’s unprecedented aggression and military modernization poses a serious threat to the homeland, our allies, and our partners,” Paparo testified, adding that the People’s Liberation Army’s “persistent pressure operations” against Taiwan have increased by 300%. “China’s increasingly aggressive actions near Taiwan are not just exercises, they are rehearsals.”
“China’s outproducing the United States in air missile, maritime, and space capability and accelerating these,” he added. “I remain confident in our deterrence posture, but the trajectory must change.”
Under questioning from committee Chairman Roger Wicker (R-MS), Paparo conceded that China’s navy and air force have grown to the point where it would pose a serious challenge to the U.S. for air superiority in a war.
“The People’s Republic of China have an order of battle of 2,100 fighters, an order of battle of over 200 H-6 bombers, and they are producing fighters at a rate of 1.2-to-1 over the United States,” Paparo said. “Furthermore, their advanced air-to-air missile, long-range air-to-air missiles, also present a tremendous threat.”
“Is it a fact that China is now capable of denying us air superiority in the first island chain?” Wicker asked.
“I give them high marks in their ability to do that. I have some game, too,” Paparo responded. “Air supremacy is the complete mastery of the air; neither side will enjoy that. But it’ll be my job to contest air superiority, to protect those forces that are on the first island chain, such as the Third Marine Expeditionary Force.”
ANY VICTORY WOULD BE PYRRHIC: In stressing the need for deterrence, Paparo argued that even if the U.S. and Taiwan were to defeat China in a military conflict, the cost of victory would be steep.
“Many a research organization postulate that conflict in the Western Pacific over the Taiwan question would result in a 25% GDP contraction in Asia and a knock-on effect of 10% to 12% GDP reduction in the United States of America, with unemployment spiking 7 to 10 points above base and likely 500,000 excess deaths of despair above base as well,” Paparo testified under questioning from Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR), who has written a new book, Seven Things You Can’t Say About China.
“Most of the things I’ve studied indicate that American intervention would have that impact,” which Paparo described as “a grave result.”
US PACIFIC COMMANDER DETAILS STARK CONSEQUENCES OF WAR WITH CHINA OVER TAIWAN
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HAPPENING TODAY: UKRAINE CONTACT GROUP MEETS WITHOUT US: The Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which was started by the U.S. and has grown to include more than 50 member nations, met today at NATO headquarters without an American presence for the first time, as Ukraine’s European allies try to chart a course to support Ukraine’s war effort without U.S. help.
On the eve of the meeting, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced that the United Kingdom, Germany, and Norway would provide hundreds of thousands of military drones, radar systems, and anti-tank mines, valued at just over $580 million.
But in his nightly video address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that with Russia’s daily glide bomb and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, his most pressing need is for more air defense, in particular Patriot missile batteries.
“Many regions have reported Russian strikes and shelling. In particular, Nikopol was hit by five Russian FPV drones — a completely deliberate strike on the city, near a food market, targeting civilians. Twelve people were injured, including one child. There were also Russian attacks on Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Mykolaiv regions,” Zelensky said. “And all of this is happening nearly a month after the United States proposed a full ceasefire. Russia is clearly ignoring diplomacy and using its contacts with the world solely to serve its own interests — not to end the war.”
Earlier this week, Zelensky indicated that Ukraine is prepared to buy weapons from the U.S. “We handed over to the American side a large package that we want to buy. To buy in one form or another,” he told reporters Tuesday, according to the Kyiv Independent. “Many different formats and tools that we are ready for. We were ready to find both $30 billion and $50 billion for a suitable package.”
ALSO TODAY: WITKOFF IN MOSCOW: U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff, President Donald Trump’s point man on Ukraine, arrived in Russia this morning and is expected to meet face-to-face with Putin at the Kremlin.
The meeting comes as Trump has expressed frustration that his ceasefire plan has yet to be accepted by Russia and that, as he has suggested, Putin is “dragging his feet.”
“I want to see Russia and Ukraine make a deal. They got to make a deal. When schools get blown up and bad things happen like I’m hearing about, it’s no good. I hope we’re going to make a deal with Russia and Ukraine,” Trump said at yesterday’s executive order signing event. “We have to get there, right now, yes — we got to get there. In the meantime, they’re losing 2,500 on average, young people, every single week, think of it, 2,500 people a week. It’s not even conceivable. We got to get there fast.”
FOOTAGE APPEARS TO SHOW RUSSIAN SOLDIERS EXECUTING UKRAINIAN POWS IN COLD BLOOD
HAPPENED OVERNIGHT: DEMOCRATS END CAINE MUTINY: It was around 2 a.m. when the Senate finally took a vote to confirm Air Force Lt. Gen. Dan “Razin” Caine to be the next chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff after Democrats forced a delay into the wee hours of the morning as a protest against the firing of Gen. Charles Q. Brown for allegedly being “too woke.”
The 60-25 vote was a comfortable but not overwhelming margin and included a promotion to the four-star rank of general. He reports to work at the Pentagon today.
This might be a good time to put to rest the false story that upon meeting Trump in Iraq in 2018, Caine supposedly said, “I love you, sir. I think you’re great, sir. I’ll kill for you, sir,” and donned a MAGA baseball cap.
During his confirmation hearing, Caine said he went back and listened to Trump’s recounting of the meeting, which he gave at the Conservative Political Action Conference in February, and testified that he thought Trump was talking about someone else. A review of the video from the C-SPAN archives confirms Caine’s account.
Trump precedes the story with the words, “What’s your name, Sergeant?” indicating he was not talking about Caine, who was a two-star general at the time. “I have never worn any political merchandise,” Caine testified under oath.
US COLONEL SACKED IN GREENLAND FOR UNDERCUTTING VANCE: Col. Susannah Meyers, commander of the 821st Space Base Group at the Pituffik Space Base in Greenland, has been replaced after sending a March 31 email that pushed back against Vice President JD Vance’s speech attacking NATO ally Denmark for its failure to protect Greenland.
“I do not presume to understand current politics, but what I do know is the concerns of the U.S. administration discussed by Vice President Vance on Friday are not reflective of Pituffik Space Base,” Meyers wrote in the email, according to Military.com.
“Colonel Susannah Meyers, commander of Pituffik Space Base, was removed from command by Colonel Kenneth Klock, commander of Space Base Delta 1, on April 10, 2025, for loss of confidence in her ability to lead,” Space Operations Command said in a press release. “Commanders are expected to adhere to the highest standards of conduct, especially as it relates to remaining nonpartisan in the performance of their duties. Colonel Shawn Lee has assumed command.”
“Actions to undermine the chain of command or to subvert President Trump’s agenda will not be tolerated at the Department of Defense,” Sean Parnell, chief Pentagon spokesman, said on X, posting a copy of the release.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
THE RUNDOWN:
Washington Examiner: Supreme Court orders Trump administration to return mistakenly deported man from El Salvador
Washington Examiner: US military leaders lay out what Russia is offering North Korea and China in return for Ukraine war aid
Washington Examiner: US Pacific commander details stark consequences of war with China over Taiwan
Washington Examiner: Footage appears to show Russian soldiers executing Ukrainian POWs in cold blood
Washington Examiner: Russia releases American woman sentenced to 12 years for Ukrainian donation in prisoner swap
Washington Examiner: After nearly a month of ‘relentless’ bombing, Yemen’s Houthis are degraded, but undeterred
Washington Examiner: Trump finalizing plan to withhold federal funding from sanctuary cities
Washington Examiner: Kristi Noem urges illegal immigrants to register with DHS: ‘No sanctuary for noncompliance’
Washington Examiner: Tom Rogan Opinion: Trump’s tariffs are trampling alliances against China
Washington Examiner: Tom Rogan: Opinion: Why Trump’s China tariffs are good, and his 10% tariffs for others are bad
New York Times: US Commanders Worry Yemen Campaign Will Drain Arms Needed to Deter China
Wall Street Journal: One Corner of Europe Feels Sharp Chill in Trans-Atlantic Ties
Breaking Defense: Congress Approved a Budget Blueprint with Up to $150B Extra for Defense. Now Comes the Hard Part.
AP: Options for Trump’s Space-Based ‘Golden Dome’ Missile Defense Shield Head to Hegseth for Approval
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Golden Dome Is New. But Plenty of Next-Gen Missile Warning Is in the Works Already
Air & Space Forces Magazine: INDOPACOM Boss Stresses Value of, Risk to Air Superiority in the Pacific
Defense Scoop: Houthi-Led Disruptions in Red Sea Prompt TRANSCOM to Expand Information-Sharing
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Space Force Looks to Go Big on Commercial: ‘Everything’s on the Table’
Breaking Defense: Acting CYBERCOM Chief Says Dual-Hat NSA Role Key to ‘Speed’ in Cyberspace
Air & Space Forces Magazine: DOD Plans Quicker, More Comprehensive Cybersecurity Standards for Contractors
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Hiring Freeze Has Had ‘Severe’ Impact on Child Care: Air Force Personnel Boss
Defense News: Opinion: Did the Trump Administration Move Too Quickly to Commit to the F-47?
SpaceNews: True Commercial Alternatives for Strategic Communications and PNT Don’t Exist—Yet
THE CALENDAR:
FRIDAY | APRIL 11
Brussels, Belgium — The United Kingdom and Germany convene the Ukraine Defence Contact Group at NATO headquarters https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
10 a.m. — National Institute for Deterrence Studies virtual discussion: “Ensuring America’s Strategic Edge,” with Maj. Gen. Stacy Jo Huser, commander, 20th Air Force at Air Force Global Strike Command https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/ensuring-americas-strategic-edge
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic & International Studies Conflict in Focus discussion: “Space and Data Domain Lessons from Russia-Ukraine,” with Krista Auchenbach, visiting fellow, Office of the Secretary of Defense; Aaron Jaffe, senior vice president, Palantir; David Gauthier, chief strategy officer, GXO, Inc., and senior associate, CSIS Aerospace Security Project; and Giorgi Tskhakaia, adviser to Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister, and minister of digital transformation and innovations https://www.csis.org/events/space-and-data-domain-lessons-russia-ukraine-conflict-focus
1 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies forum: “Deepening the U.S.-Japan Space Security Relationship,” with Jun Kazeki, director-general of Japan’s National Space Policy Secretariat, Cabinet Office; Lt. Gen. Corey Trusty, military deputy, Space Force’s International Affairs Space Division https://www.csis.org/events/deepening-us-japan-space-security-relationship
TUESDAY | APRIL 22 6:15 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd., Arlington, Va. — Association of the U.S. Army “Coffee Series” discussion with Army Vice Chief of Staff Gen. James Mingushttps://www.ausa.org/events/coffee-series/gen-mingus
