President Donald Trump won all seven swing states in the last election because voters trusted him to handle the economy and immigration better than former President Joe Biden did and better than former Vice President Kamala Harris would have done. However, two months into his second term, Trump has delivered on border security but voters are losing faith in his ability to handle the economy. His imminent “Liberation Day” tariffs are only making it worse.
Before Trump was sworn into office, according to the latest CBS News poll, more Americans (42%) believed his policies would help them financially than those (28%) who expected to be worse off. Today, those numbers have flipped, with just 23% of people saying Trump’s policies are helping them financially and 42% saying they are worse off. This is not only happening among unhappy Democrats. Before January, three-fourths of Republicans said they expected Trump to make their lives easier financially. Now, less than half are saying they are better off after two months of Trump.
It is easy to see why this happened. The CBS News poll found that 64% of voters believed Trump is not focusing enough on lowering prices, while 55% said Trump is too focused on tariffs. More importantly, almost three-fourths of voters said Trump’s tariffs would raise prices, at least in the short term, and almost half (47%) said they would raise prices long term.
All this tariff uncertainty is eroding consumer and business confidence. The Conference Board reported last week that its consumer confidence index fell for the fourth straight month and is now at its lowest since January 2021. The National Federation of Independent Businesses reported its survey of small businesses recorded the second-highest level of uncertainty ever.
If the White House had a clear and well-articulated plan for its tariff policies, people might have more faith in their outcome. However, that is not the case. Ahead of Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” tariff hikes, the White House is appearing uncertain about what its policy will be. Some in the White House are apparently pushing for across-the-board hikes as large as 25%, while others want reciprocal tariffs that would apply differently to each country based on their tariff barriers to American goods. The White House is also considering exemptions for certain key products and industries.
With all this uncertainty about the cost of key inputs, CEOs are delaying or canceling purchases and investments until the picture becomes clearer. Trump’s tariff uncertainty appears to be undermining the economy, with early forecasts projecting an anemic .3% GDP growth in the first quarter.
It didn’t have to be this way. There is plenty Trump has already done and could be doing to deliver prosperity. His Environmental Protection Agency announced more than 30 regulatory actions that will bring down the cost of everything by lowering energy prices. The White House Council on Environmental Quality began rewriting how federal agencies should implement the National Environmental Policy Act, a move that will lower costs and shorten delays for almost every infrastructure project. Congress has been steadily making progress on legislation to ensure the Trump tax cuts don’t expire at the end of this year. The White House can and should be working harder to make that a reality.
Trump can be a successful and transformative president — from the work the Department of Government Efficiency is doing to modernize the federal government’s information systems to Trump’s assertion of executive power bringing accountability to the administrative state. However, that progress will be for naught if chaotic tariffs cause a recession, which would define his second term in office.
TRUMP’S RIGHTEOUS BATTLE TO END GOVERNMENT UNION COLLECTIVE BARGAINING
Trump started his presidency with strong approval ratings overall and on the economy specifically. Now, he is significantly underwater on the economy, which has dragged down his overall popularity to the point where equal percentages of the public approve and disapprove of the job he is doing.
He had better hope for good results with whatever he chooses on tariffs because if the economy shrinks, Republicans will have a bad midterm election, and Trump will have an inconsequential final two years in office.
