President Trump is not the political colossus he and his supporters claim — and everything from the stock market to his opinion poll ratings prove it.
The problem for Democrats is that their own divisions — on everything from legislation to a broader uncertainty about the party’s direction — have rendered them unable to take advantage.
The upshot is that even as Trump shows early signs of vulnerability, he is being spared the challenge of a unified, focused opposition.
The starkest example yet came on Friday, when internal Democratic discord over a proposed government spending bill burst into the open.
House Democrats, who had voted all-but-unanimously against the GOP bill, were on one side, backed up by progressive activists. Senate moderates, most notably Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.), were on the other.
Schumer announced on Thursday evening that he would back the bill in the Senate, arguing that the alternative — a government shutdown — would be worse both politically for his party, and substantively for the American people.
His decision appalled the left, who see backing the bill as tantamount to offering a free hand to Trump and his deeply controversial ally Elon Musk. Musk has spearheaded a culling of federal agencies through his quasi-official Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) denounced the decision by party colleagues to go along with the bill, accusing those who backed it of fueling a “deep sense of outrage and betrayal.”
Ocasio-Cortez told reporters on Thursday evening that the centrists were in effect “acquiescing to Elon Musk” and that doing so “codifies the chaos” that, to her eyes, Musk and Trump are causing.
On Friday, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), who had staunchly opposed the bill in the lower chamber, evaded answering reporters who asked him whether he still had confidence in Schumer’s leadership on the other side of the Capitol.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) also joined the fray. Newsom, who is widely seen as harboring presidential ambitions in 2028, wrote on social media that “Senate Democrats need to stand up and do the right thing” by rejecting the bill.
Doing otherwise, the governor contended, would provide Republicans with six months — the duration of the spending bill — “to consolidate power in the Executive Branch and wreak havoc on our country.”
The rhetorical riflery was not all one-way, however.
Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.), who has grown increasingly distant from, and mocking of, the progressive left, shot back at Ocasio-Cortez on Friday.
Fetterman, who has said he would vote for the spending bill in order to avert a shutdown, said of the New York progressive, “I hope you can relay how little I care about her views on this.”
The Pennsylvania senator characterized his support of the package as an attempt to avoid the damage that would accrue from a shutdown.
“What about all the millions of Americans who are going to have their lives damaged?” he asked rhetorically.
These divisions are all the more galling for Democrats because Trump has careened into turbulent waters after less than two months in office.
In particular, uncertainty around Trump’s tariff policies has fueled a fire that has singed the stock market.
All the major indices have fallen over the past month, even though they bounced upward on Friday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen by almost 7 percent since a month ago, the more broad-based S&P 500 by almost 8 percent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq by more than 11 percent.
Just as importantly, most economists believe Trump’s tariff policies — and the retaliatory actions taken by other nations and the 27-member European Union — will contribute to inflationary pressures.
That could be ominous.
The very high inflation seen around the midpoint of the Biden presidency inflicted a wound from which the 46th president and his successor as Democratic nominee, then-Vice President Harris, could not recover.
The political pain for Trump could be intense if, after being elected in part to eliminate the problem, he instead sends prices on a new climb.
Notably, Trump’s worst-scoring issue of the eight tested in this week’s Economist/YouGov poll was inflation. Just 38 percent of Americans approved of his performance so far on that topic, while 52 percent disapproved.
Trump’s overall job performance in the same poll was evenly split, with 47 percent of adults on each side of the question.
That’s acceptable in the current hyperpolarized climate but hardly stellar, especially so early in a presidential term.
Still, Democrats divisions are much more widespread than a yay-or-nay vote on a spending bill.
The party is racked by discord over its position on social issues – especially trans rights and, to an only slightly lesser degree, diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) policies.
Newsom, Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.) and former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel (D) are among the prominent figures who have argued for less emphasis on trans issues or at least a more modulated approach.
Conversely, on the left, many figures contend the Democratic Party that been too cozy for too long with corporatist interests, losing the allegiance of the working-class voters who were once its bedrock.
Progressives relish pointing out that while much of the party seems lost and listless, left-wing icon Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is drawing fervent crowds in the thousands to rallies where he rails against oligarchical interests.
As if all that were not enough, there appears to be a growing generational divide, as younger Democrats increasingly bristle at a party whose upper reaches are dominated by septuagenarians — including the 74-year-old Schumer.
Democrats can identify many problems. But they are a long way from agreeing on solutions.
That leaves Trump with more free rein than he might otherwise enjoy — at least for the moment.
The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.
