BERLIN — The Christian Democratic Union and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, have few options in front of them to form a government after taking first place in the German elections as expected.
The CDU/CSU received approximately 28.5% of votes in Sunday’s election, coming in close to the 30% support estimated ahead of the polls. This will put them in first place, but their victory is soured by the rise of a rival, more right-wing party.
Alternative for Germany, the reformation party that sits to the right of the CDU/CSU’s centrist conservatism, received approximately 20.8% of the vote, putting them in second place.
The Social Democratic Party (SPD) scored about 16.5%, signifying a collapse of support after the dissolution of their government under Chancellor Olaf Scholz last year. They were followed by the Green Party at approximately 11.7%.
Several parties are in serious jeopardy of being bumped out of parliament altogether if they fail to meet the 5% minimum. Bundnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) is hovering at a treacherous 4.9% and the Free Democratic Party appears stuck at 4.4%.
These results are not yet finalized and are likely to shift up 1 or 2 points by tomorrow morning when the official tallies are announced.
It’s a massive gain for AfD, almost doubling their support since the last election. Their rise is largely tied to their demands for widespread immigration reform that would deport those illegally living in Germany and tighten the requirements for asylum.
Despite taking home the silver trophy, the party is set to be shut out of Bundestag dialogue due to a long-standing “firewall” between the political establishment and those deemed too “far-right” for modern Germany.
The CDU/CSU has acknowledged the popularity of AfD’s immigration reform proposals and promises to offer greater enforcement on illegal migrants.
Party leader Friedrich Merz already made clear he is unwilling to form a coalition with the AfD, and a CDU official previously told the Washington Examiner that more tempered immigration reform will be pursued.
“There is, from my point of view, only one point of AfD which is remarkable and should be considered in the new government. This is a new approach in immigration policy,” Jurgen Hardt, CDU chief whip on the Bundestag foreign affairs committee, previously told the Washington Examiner. “There are various scales of what and how much to do. AfD is asking for much more than other parties, but we in the CDU are doing those things we are in favor of — for example, better control of the inter-European German borders and more strict sending back of illegal [immigrants] and refugees in Germany. I hope that people will see that it’s not necessary to vote for AfD.”
Due to the Green’s less-than-stellar turn-out, the CDU/CSU will likely be forced join with the SDP to form a government — an arrangement that has happened four times since World War II called the “Grand Coalition.”
But that arrangement might not be so grand for Germans seeking change in the Bundestag. Past coordination between the two parties — which diverge on many issues — has been criticized as only succeeding in maintaining the status quo.
AfD members at a local election watch party in Berlin expressed mixed reactions to the Washington Examiner.
Enjoying bratwurst, beer, hot wine, and many cigarettes, AfD members expressed thankfulness for breaking 20% and said they expected their numbers to only go up under a Grand Coalition that is unlikely to enact the immigration reform motivating many voters.
Others, however, worry that Germany is sprinting over a cliff and they’re not sure their party’s growth is happening fast enough to stop national decline. The movement grew immensely in this election, but not enough to give them any control in the parliament.
“We’re running out of time,” one woman who attended the party with her husband lamented to the Washington Examiner.
The most optimistic hope among the AfD for this election was to reach 25%. This level of presence in the Bundestag would have allowed them to unilaterally vote for government inquiries into everything from public funding deemed suspicious to violent migrant crime.
Despite their successes, the AfD will be able to do little but continue protesting the Grand Coalition likely to form in the coming days from inside and outside the Bundestag.
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Many AfD members believe the next election will be that turning point that finally makes their movement too big for a firewall.
Such a victory will not be easy, however, as the establishment parties do everything they can to convince voters that there is no need for such a drastic shift.
