The election handicapper Cook Political Report found Republicans with an advantage to keep control of the Senate in the 2026 midterm elections in its initial ratings set for next year.
The ratings showed both Republicans and Democrats defending few competitive seats but the GOP in a relatively strong position to retain its majority, which currently sits at 53-47. For Democrats to win back a majority, the party would need to net four seats, winning in at least one state that currently seems like a reach.
Cook lists two Senate seats, both of which are currently held by Democrats, as toss-ups — Georgia and Michigan.
Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) is gearing up for a run for his second term in what will be one of Republicans’ best pickup opportunities, especially if popular two-term Gov. Brian Kemp (R) runs for the seat. In Michigan, Sen. Gary Peters’s (D) announcement that he isn’t seeking a third term has scrambled the field and could spur crowded races for both parties’ nominations.
The most obvious seats for Democrats to pick up in 2026 are in Maine and North Carolina, from Sens. Susan Collins (R) and Thom Tillis (R), respectively. Both seats are considered “lean Republican.”
Collins is a longtime GOP senator in an otherwise comfortably Democratic state on the federal level and is the only sitting Republican senator from a state that voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024. Democrats have been eager to oust her in the past, but they have failed each time.
North Carolina has consistently been a battleground state for more than a decade, though Democrats have frequently fallen short in federal elections there. Tillis won by less than 2 points in 2020, and Democrats hope former Gov. Roy Cooper (D), a rumored possible candidate, may be the best chance at defeating him.
The next most likely Republican-held seat to flip in Cook’s ratings is the one in Ohio that was vacated by Vice President Vance and is now held by Sen. Jon Husted (R). Gov. Mike DeWine (R) appointed Husted to the seat after Vance’s resignation from it, and a special election will be held in 2026 to fill the remaining two years of Vance’s term.
Ohio previously was a battleground but has increasingly shifted right in recent years and is rated “likely Republican.” But Democrats may have some hope in former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), who served three terms before his defeat to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R) in November and who has expressed interest in running again.
After that, Democrats would need to pick up a seat that Cook currently rates as “solid Republican,” limiting their options.
Republicans will hope to expand their majority even beyond Georgia and Michigan with the seat in New Hampshire, held by Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D). That race is considered “lean Democrat.”
Their next-most likely target is Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith (D), whose race is rated “likely Democrat.”
Even if the chances of Democrats winning back the Senate seem slim in 2026, the party could still take the opportunity to make gains to set itself up for 2028. The sitting president’s party has historically performed poorly in the midterms as backlash to their administration.
The House may be a more attainable target for Democrats to flip in 2026. Cook released its ratings of the House races last week, showing 18 seats as toss-ups.
